How to Fill This Out:
  1. Copy your allocations from portfolio_worksheet.html
  2. For each strategy, calculate the 1-year return using:
    • APR gains: Allocation × APR
    • IL losses: For LP only (see il_calculation_guide.html)
    • Price impact: For ETH-denominated positions
  3. Sum all net returns to get total portfolio gain/loss
  4. Calculate percentage return: (Total Net Return / $10,000) × 100

Scenario A: Bull Market (ETH +50%)

ETH price: $2,000 → $3,000

Key Facts for This Scenario

  • ETH/USDC LP: -2.02% IL | Price exposure: +25% (50/50 split gains half of ETH's +50%)
  • ETH Staking: Full +50% price gain (100% ETH exposure)
  • USDC strategies: No price impact
  • Yield Farm: Assume survives (80% probability)
Strategy Allocation APR Gain IL Loss Price Impact Net Return
1. ETH/USDC LP (30%)
Allocation × 0.30
× (-0.0202)
Allocation × 0.25
2. USDC Lending (8%)
Allocation × 0.08
No IL
No price risk
3. ETH Staking (4%)
Allocation × 0.04
No IL
Allocation × 0.50
4. Yield Farm (100%)
Allocation × 1.00 × 0.8
Complex IL
Variable exposure
5. Hold USDC (0%)
0% APR
No IL
No price risk
TOTAL NET RETURN (Scenario A)
Percentage Return:
(Total Net Return / $10,000) × 100

Scenario B: Sideways Market (ETH 0%)

ETH price: $2,000 → $2,000

Key Facts for This Scenario

  • ETH/USDC LP: 0% IL | No price impact
  • ETH Staking: No price gain/loss
  • All strategies: Returns = APR only
  • Yield Farm: Assume survives (70% probability)
Strategy Allocation APR Gain IL Loss Price Impact Net Return
1. ETH/USDC LP (30%)
Allocation × 0.30
0% IL
No change
2. USDC Lending (8%)
Allocation × 0.08
No IL
No price risk
3. ETH Staking (4%)
Allocation × 0.04
No IL
No change
4. Yield Farm (100%)
Allocation × 1.00 × 0.7
Variable IL
No change
5. Hold USDC (0%)
0% APR
No IL
No change
TOTAL NET RETURN (Scenario B)
Percentage Return:
(Total Net Return / $10,000) × 100

Scenario C: Bear Market (ETH -50%)

ETH price: $2,000 → $1,000

Key Facts for This Scenario

  • ETH/USDC LP: -5.72% IL | Price exposure: -25% (50/50 split loses half of ETH's -50%)
  • ETH Staking: Full -50% price loss (100% ETH exposure)
  • USDC strategies: No price impact (safe haven)
  • Yield Farm: Likely failed (50% probability of rug pull)
Strategy Allocation APR Gain IL Loss Price Impact Net Return
1. ETH/USDC LP (30%)
Allocation × 0.30
× (-0.0572)
Allocation × (-0.25)
2. USDC Lending (8%)
Allocation × 0.08
No IL
No price risk
3. ETH Staking (4%)
Allocation × 0.04
No IL
Allocation × (-0.50)
4. Yield Farm (100%)
Allocation × 1.00 × 0.5
Or -100% if rugged
Variable exposure
5. Hold USDC (0%)
0% APR
No IL
No price risk
TOTAL NET RETURN (Scenario C)
Percentage Return:
(Total Net Return / $10,000) × 100

Portfolio Performance Summary

Scenario Total Return ($) Percentage Return (%) Final Portfolio Value
Scenario A: Bull Market (ETH +50%)
Scenario B: Sideways Market (ETH 0%)
Scenario C: Bear Market (ETH -50%)

Analysis Questions

  1. Which scenario produces the best return for your portfolio? Why?
  2. Which scenario produces the worst return? How would you adjust your allocation to improve this?
  3. Does your portfolio favor bull markets, bear markets, or stable markets? What does this say about your risk profile?

© Joerg Osterrieder 2025-2026. All rights reserved.