Network-Based Credit Risk in P2P Lending

Swiss National Science Foundation | CHF 350K | 2020-2023 —

Overview

SNSF Mobility Research Grant project developing advanced, interpretable credit risk models for peer-to-peer lending markets using network topology approaches.

Role

Principal Investigator / Co-PI - Leading development of network-based credit risk models.

Research Team

  • Lennart John Baals (Bern Business School / University of Twente)
  • Branka Hadji Misheva (Bern Business School)
  • Yiting Liu (Bern Business School)

Challenge

P2P lending faces unique challenges:

  • Higher information asymmetry than traditional banking
  • Less regulatory oversight
  • Increased risk during economic downturns
  • Need for investor trust and platform credibility

Methodology

Approach Purpose
Network Centrality Identify connected borrower-lender patterns
Machine Learning Predict default probability
Graph Neural Networks Capture network topology features
Explainable AI Ensure model interpretability

Key Publications

  • Finance Research Letters (2024): Network Centrality and Credit Risk: A Comprehensive Analysis of Peer-to-Peer Lending Dynamics
  • Expert Systems with Applications (2024): Leveraging network topology for credit risk assessment in P2P lending

Impact

Models developed help P2P platforms and investors better assess credit risk, enhancing trust in the decentralized lending ecosystem.