Week 4: Climate Risk Assessment
Learning Goals
- Understand climate risk frameworks including TCFD and physical vs transition risks
- Apply carbon metrics and temperature alignment methodologies
- Conduct scenario analysis for portfolio climate risk assessment
Topics Covered
- TCFD framework and recommendations
- Physical risks vs transition risks
- Carbon footprinting (Scope 1, 2, 3)
- Climate Value-at-Risk
- Temperature alignment metrics
- NGFS scenarios
Data behind the figures
The week models a portfolio’s climate exposure, and the modelling rests on three sources of data. None of them is redistributed with the slides; each is obtained from its publisher, on the publisher’s own terms.
| Source | What it supplies | Terms |
|---|---|---|
| Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios | the six reference scenarios on slide 24, and the pathways behind the Climate Value-at-Risk worked example | published by the NGFS and hosted on its scenario portal; free to use, registration required |
| CDP disclosures | company-reported emissions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3 | responses are published by CDP; bulk access is licensed |
| MSCI ESG Research estimates | modelled emissions where a company does not report | commercial subscription |
Materials
- Lecture Slides (PDF), 34 pages
(c) Joerg Osterrieder, University of Twente